Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.289421 1.359517 1.432303 1.513702 1.602407 1.696385 1.803788
2025-12-14 1.159804 1.255665 1.359382 1.480584 1.619161 1.773667 1.960387
2025-12-21 1.087107 1.198152 1.321717 1.470625 1.646862 1.850937 2.108342
2025-12-28 1.045103 1.168948 1.310018 1.484519 1.697329 1.952176 2.286423
2026-01-04 0.997479 1.128640 1.280829 1.473075 1.713335 2.009231 2.410477
2026-01-11 0.970292 1.109951 1.274878 1.487484 1.759651 2.104366 2.588026
2026-01-18 0.940565 1.085994 1.260342 1.489074 1.788136 2.176521 2.738690
2026-01-25 0.925830 1.079144 1.265801 1.515178 1.848546 2.293222 2.959111
2026-02-01 0.888448 1.042215 1.231394 1.487314 1.834741 2.306984 3.031616
2026-02-08 0.848880 1.000910 1.189533 1.447293 1.801648 2.290862 3.057035
2026-02-15 0.823911 0.977147 1.169100 1.434479 1.804670 2.325159 3.160376
2026-02-22 0.807137 0.963152 1.160584 1.436942 1.828558 2.390233 3.316156
2026-03-01 0.781672 0.937799 1.137149 1.419275 1.824726 2.416813 3.417386
2026-03-08 0.752698 0.907014 1.105500 1.388957 1.801111 2.412155 3.466817
2026-03-15 0.733717 0.888689 1.089735 1.379933 1.807787 2.453734 3.597733
2026-03-22 0.723936 0.882139 1.089461 1.392533 1.846869 2.548082 3.830144
2026-03-29 0.706593 0.864847 1.073797 1.382155 1.850254 2.584965 3.961933
2026-04-05 0.698407 0.859585 1.074401 1.395221 1.890067 2.683751 4.220248
2026-04-12 0.686769 0.849214 1.067437 1.396663 1.911467 2.752820 4.428998
2026-04-19 0.683024 0.849476 1.075289 1.420315 1.969232 2.888185 4.788959
2026-04-26 0.663884 0.827907 1.051452 1.395067 1.946254 2.879757 4.846442
2026-05-03 0.642102 0.802183 1.021026 1.358760 1.903510 2.833343 4.816963
2026-05-10 0.628896 0.788138 1.006998 1.347124 1.901062 2.859702 4.950964